A fundamental parameter used in eclipse predictions is the Moon's radius k, expressed in units of Earth's equatorial radius. The Moon's actual radius varies as a function of position angle and libration due to the irregularity in the limb profile. From 1968 through 1980, the Nautical Almanac Office used two separate values for k in their predictions. The larger value (k = 0.2724880), representing a mean over topographic features, was used for all penumbral (exterior) contacts and for annular eclipses. A smaller value (k = 0.272281), representing a mean minimum radius, was reserved exclusively for umbral (interior) contact calculations of total eclipses [Explanatory Supplement, 1974]. Unfortunately, the use of two different values of k for umbral eclipses introduces a discontinuity in the case of hybrid or annular-total eclipses.
In August 1982, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) General Assembly adopted a value of k = 0.2725076 for the mean lunar radius. This value is now used by the Nautical Almanac Office for all solar eclipse predictions [Fiala and Lukac, 1983] and is currently the best mean radius, averaging mountain peaks and low valleys along the Moon's rugged limb. The adoption of one single value for k eliminates the discontinuity in the case of annular-total eclipses and ends confusion arising from the use of two different values. However, the use of even the best 'mean' value for the Moon's radius introduces a problem in predicting the true character and duration of umbral eclipses, particularly total eclipses. A total eclipse can be defined as an eclipse in which the Sun's disk is completely occulted by the Moon. This cannot occur so long as any photospheric rays are visible through deep valleys along the Moon's limb [Meeus, Grosjean and Vanderleen, 1966]. But the use of the IAU's mean k guarantees that some annular or annular-total eclipses will be misidentified as total. A case in point is the eclipse of 3 October 1986. Using the IAU value for k, the Astronomical Almanac identified this event as a total eclipse of 3 seconds duration when it was, in fact, a beaded annular eclipse. Since a smaller value of k is more representative of the deeper lunar valleys and hence the minimum solid disk radius, it helps ensure the correct identification of an eclipse's true nature.
Of primary interest to most observers are the times when umbral eclipse begins and ends (second and third contacts, respectively) and the duration of the umbral phase. When the IAU's value for k is used to calculate these times, they must be corrected to accommodate low valleys (total) or high mountains (annular) along the Moon's limb. The calculation of these corrections is not trivial but must be performed, especially if one plans to observe near the path limits [Herald, 1983]. For observers near the center line of a total eclipse, the limb corrections can be more closely approximated by using a smaller value of k which accounts for the valleys along the profile.
The NASA eclipse bulletins use the IAU's accepted value of k = 0.2725076 for all penumbral (exterior) contacts. In order to avoid eclipse type misidentification and to predict central durations which are closer to the actual durations at total eclipses, we depart from standard convention by adopting the smaller value of k = 0.272281 for all umbral (interior) contacts. This is consistent with predictions in Fifty Year Canon of Solar Eclipses: 1986 - 2035 [Espenak, 1987]. Consequently, the smaller k produces shorter umbral durations and narrower paths for total eclipses when compared with calculations using the IAU value for k. Similarly, predictions using a smaller k result in longer umbral durations and wider paths for annular eclipses than do predictions using the IAU's k.
All eclipse calculations are by Fred Espenak, and he assumes full responsibility for their accuracy. Permission is freely granted to reproduce this data when accompanied by an acknowledgment:
"Eclipse Predictions by Fred Espenak, NASA's GSFC"
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